Sunday, October 15, 2017

SPX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle | "Higher Monday; lower into Wednesday"


Barry Rosen predicts: "Lower Sunday; higher Monday; lower into Wednesday."
Difficult to spot, but this matches the projection of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle.

SPX vs Venus Latitude @ MAX | Oct 22 (Sun)

The latitude of Venus will reach a temporary maximum at +1.54205 degrees on Sunday, October 22.
This usually corresponds to short term changes in stocks (± 1-2 TD).

SPX vs Mercury Latitude @ 0° | Oct 18-19 (Wed-Thu)


On Wednesday, October 18 after the market session, Mercury's latitude will reach 0 degrees.
Thursday will be a New Moon, and the Sun opposing Uranus. The solunar bias for stocks will be positive (= sideways-to-up) from Monday into Friday. Wednesday and Thursday are Cosmic Cluster Days.
Monday, Wednesday and Thursday would be short term reversal days.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

DJIA Forecast 2017 vs Actual & Outlook into 2027 | Thomas Bulkowski


On January 1, 2017 Thomas Bulkowski presented a forecast for the DJIA in 2017 (middle chart). Comparing this forecast with the actual DJIA (top chart), he now remarks on October 14: "Notice that peak A comes well before B, and it's higher than B, too. Bad timing. The index dipped and has recovered up to C, nearly matching the prediction. Here's where the ride gets scary. Notice how the market drops, and fast, too, after C. That's about a 1,500 point drop in a month. Ouch. This forecast isn't guessing. It's based on what has happened in prior years. Click the above link for more details. However, just because it's a mechanical forecast doesn't make it right. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next four weeks."

Also on January 1, 2017 he published a forecast for the DJIA covering a decade of price movement into 2027 (lower chart): "The vertical magenta lines show important turns. Price is fine during most of 2017 until the Dow peaks in October. Then the big decline starts in what looks to be a bear market lasting to 2019. Then we get a nice run up which continues until at least 2027."

Friday, October 13, 2017

NDX, RUT and SPX vs SoLunar Map | Mid-Month Review & Preview

The high in the S&P500 on Oct 12 (Thu) coincided with a high in the SoLunar Map,
and the solunar bias into Oct 16 (Mon) is sideways-to-down.
But looking at the R2K and NDX: did they perform a high or a low?
Anyway, Oct 14 (Sat) will be a Cosmic Cluster Day, and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri; New Moon = Oct 19), Oct 23 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps can be found HERE

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Value Line Geometric Composite Index Breaking Above 1998 High

While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon,
some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss.
Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE)

No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017
Source: macrotrends
US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average
Source: PCA

Sunday, October 1, 2017

George Marechal's Stock Market Forecast 1933 to 1948 │ Law of the Market

In 1933 the incoming U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt reached out to Roger Ward Babson for a long range forecast for the stock markets. Babson, a very successful entrepreneur, economist, business theorist, investor, and philantroph with a huge fortune, was a household name since he had predicted, back on September 5th 1929, that "a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". Later that very same day the stock market on Wall Street declined by 3% and this became known as the "Babson Break". The big crash with most catastrophic losses followed on October 24 and 29, 1929 (Black Thursday and Black Tuesday). When the U.S. finally reached the height of the Great Depression in 1932 and the stock market was at an all-time low, 75% of its value was wiped out, and shares in any company were virtually worthless. Thousands of people were ruined, and soup kitchens sprang up on street corners as people lost their jobs, savings and homes. 

To comply with President Roosevelt’s demand, Babson in turn consulted the largely unknown Canadian mathematician George Marechal, who recently had managed to work out how the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Index repeated themselves in predetermined sequences. So finally it was Marechal who produced a Dow Jones Index Forecast Chart over the next 15 years for the Roosevelt administration, that proved to be spectacularly accurate. So confident was Marechal in his prediction at the time that he had his chart copyrighted. His friend Alan H. Andrews (the inventor of Andrews’ Pitchfork) described it as a "chart no government economist, no college professor has enough knowledge to even approach or courage to try to duplicate.

Comparison of Marechal's 1933 forecast with actual data of the Dow Jones Index from 1934 through April 1951
[published by Garfield A. Drew and Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

Edward R. Dewey confirmed in 1962 that still little to nothing was known of Marechal's method, though a fund manager had offered him $20,000 for his secrets, or, alternatively, to operate a five million dollar fund on the basis of these secrets and to share profits. But Marechal did not accept either offer, and finally died at the age of 90 without ever revealing how he was able to calculate market movements with such uncanny accuracy. However, what is clear is that he was using a version of Babson's Normal Line. The annotations to his chart later added by his friend Alan Andrews show that Marechal plotted turns with what are now known as Median Lines. Dewey concluded:
"The important thing about this study [chart of Marechal] is not the exact precision by which it came true, or the amount of money you would or would not have made if you had followed it. The important thing is that it shows that the market has predictable patterns. In other words, that the seeming disorder of market fluctuations really is subject to law, and that this law is learnable."
In 1948 Garfield A. Drew, another friend of Marechal, reproduced the forecast in his book "New Methods For Profit in the Stock Market". Drew stated that one of the original copies of the forecast had been in his possession since 1935, and as each year was divided into six parts he added in his book the actual fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages by plotting the high and low for each two-month period. Drew commented on the famous chart:
"Clearly, the pattern of the forecast and the actual pattern of the market miss many times in detail and exact timing. Nevertheless, the broad picture of the trends from 1934 through 1947, at least, is remarkably similar. The basic downtrend from 1936-37 to 1942 is plain, and likewise the uptrend from 1942 to 1946, although the latter shows up as a much more zigzag pattern in the forecast than was actually the case. Thus, the year 1944 by itself, for example, appears as a down period, whereas it was really an up year. When the year 1947 ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had spent 16 months within a 16% price range. As far as the situation at the time the comparison in [the figure] ends is concerned, it is evident that, if the broad accuracy of the preceding 14 years is to be maintained, 1948 must, on the whole, witness a rising price level. A definite down trend going substantially into new low territory by the year-end would produce a greater discrepancy between the forecast pattern and the actual course of prices than at any other time in the record. The fact remains to be seen at this writing, but, in line with his original forecast made years before, Marechal always insisted that 1946-47 was not a "bear market" but an interruption in a long upward trend comparable to the break and market hesitancy during 1926 in the long upswing from 1921 to 1929.
"In this figure the Dow Jones Averages are plotted from 1897 through 1962. On this chart are a number
of "resistance" lines. The original worksheets for Marechal's forecast look just about like this chart,
except that there were a great many more lines and, thus, a great many more intersecting points.
Marechal's secrets consist fundamentally of how to draw the resistance lines and how to select the
significant intersections"
[Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

Saturday, September 30, 2017

EUR/USD vs Inner Planets' Ingress into Zodiac Signs + Annual Cycle

SoLunar Map | October - November 2017

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Oct 01 (Sun), Oct 05-06 (Thu-Fri) = Full Moon, Oct 09 (Mon), Oct 12 (Thu), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri; New Moon = Oct 19), Oct 23 (Mon), Oct 27 (Fri), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 04 (Sat) = Full Moon, Nov 07 (Tue), Nov 11 (Sat), Nov 15 (Wed), Nov 18-19 (Sat-Sun) = New Moon, Nov 22 (Wed), Nov 26 (Sun), Nov 29 (Wed), Dec 03 (Sun) = Full Moon.
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

The above charts depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month).

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days).

The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | October 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days:
Oct 04 (Wed), Oct 14 (Sat), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 17 (Tue), Oct 25 (Wed), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 08 (Wed).

Extreme Greed │ Stock Market Indices At or Near Major High

On Friday, Sep 29th CNN's Fear & Greed Index signals Extreme Greed.
Source
: CNN Fear & Greed Index
The VIX Index is on day 11 of 13 with a downside DeMark Countdown.
This should bottom next week and react upward after the signal (HERE)

Dana Lyons (Sep 29, 2017) - Back in late July, we witnessed a barrage of U.S. stock indices breaking out to all-time highs. While large-cap indices had steadily been hitting higher highs all year, several other indices were just breaking out above 6-month trading ranges [...] however, what looked like a convincing, broad-based breakout wouldn’t last. Within weeks, most indices had dropped back below their respective breakout levels. For the small, mid and broad-based stock indices, this represented a false breakout and triggered a move back down to – or below – the bottom of the former 6-month ranges. That was the bad news. The good news is that these broad averages saw that false breakout – and they raised it (literally) a false breakdown. In fact, following a break below the low end of the trading range spanning the 1st half of 2017, the broad market has come back with a vengeance. And on Wednesday, we witnessed another breakout to new all-time highs on the part of these broad averages. And this breakout has been accompanied by an arguably healthier set of internal conditions. 

Barry Rosen (Sep 29, 2017) - Market should be getting ready of first of month stock buying on Monday but we are very close to key stock market high [...] We’ll probably have to rebuy Sunday night/ Monday with first the month buying likely to come in and lift the market up to 2519-22 early next week. Cycles for the US are complicated [...] Looking at next week, the October top could come in as soon as Monday with Oct. 6 being a secondary high. The weeks of Oct. 8-20 are the ones that look more like the market will be in trouble [...] Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market. CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday; higher Monday; lower Tuesday; secondary high by Oct. 6 (see also SoLunar Map HERE).
 
Source: Tom McClellan

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Cosmic Cluster Days │ October — November 2017


Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Oct 13 (Fri), Oct 18 (Wed), Oct 19 (Thu), Oct 21 (Sat), Oct 22 (Sun), Nov 02 (Thu), Nov 08 (Wed), Nov 09 (Thu), Nov 10 (Fri), Nov 23 (Thu), Dec 09 (Sat).
Previous CCDs are HERE

The assumption is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Cosmic Noise Channel

Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days September 2017 | Preview: October 2017

SPX - NDX - RUT vs SoLunar Map | Review & Preview


Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Sep 28 (Thu), Oct 01 (Sun), Oct 05-06 (Thu-Fri) = Full Moon, Oct 09 (Mon), Oct 12 (Thu), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri) = New Moon, Oct 23 (Mon), Oct 27 (Fri), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 04 (Sat) = Full Moon. The complete October-November Map is HERE

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Rosh Hashanah and Equinox

The Russell 2000 vs the major 118.12 Calendar Day SoLunar Cycle.

Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset of Wednesday, Sep 20 (New Moon), and ends at nightfall on Friday, Sep 22. The fall (autumnal) equinox is on Friday, Sep 22 at 10:48 am EDT (see also HERE). Greed reached an extreme level on Sep 19 (Tue), and the S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq generated Narrow Range Inside Day Patterns (ID/NR4 and ID/NR7 - HERE + HERE).

Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur
[evening of Friday , Sep 29] ? │ Jeff Hirsch
DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 7 of Last 8 Years
Day before Rosh Hashanah │ Jeff Hirsch

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

SPX vs Mercury Latitude Cycle @ MIN @ MAX @ 0 │ August 2017

On Aug 22 (Tue) Mercury's geocentric latitude will be lowest in the 88 Day Cycle at -7 degrees.

Monday, July 31, 2017

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle │ August 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri), Aug 07 (Mon), Aug 16 (Wed), Aug 24 (Thu), Aug 30 (Wed), Sep 08 (Fri).

Sunday, July 30, 2017

SPX vs Lunar Mystery Cycle │ The Infinite Divided By The Soul

The Lunar Mystery Cycle suggests that August 04 (Fri) ± 1 TD will be a low.
  1. Divide the Number of the Infinite (= 1) by the Number of the Soul (= 7) = 0.1428571
  2.  Float the decimals to the front by multiplying 0.1428571 by 100,000 = 14,285.71 
  3. Assume this would be Degrees of Lunar Motion, and divide them by 360 Degrees = 39.68 Lunar Months of 29.53 Calendar Days (CD) = 39 Lunations + 20.15 CD ≈ 1,171.79 Calendar Days or divided by the length of the Mean Solar Year (365.24 Days) 3.21 Years.  
Any pivot-date in the S&P500 plus approximately 1,172 CD will become another pivot, oftentimes even of the same polarity. However, this cycle cannot forecast the magnitude and importance of the projected highs and lows.

An ancient approximation to π (pi) is 22 divided by 7 = 3.142857. This has been associated with Jewish mysticism. Certain Kabbalists know the 22 characters of the Hebrew alphabet represent a complete circumference that, when divided by 7 = the sacred number of cycles, produces the Kabbalistic π, also known as the perfect π

One divided by seven is 0.142857142857142857142857142857 ..., and if 142,857 is multiplied by 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, the answer is a cyclic permutation of itself, and will correspond to the repeating digits of 2/7, 3/7, 4/7, 5/7, or 6/7, respectively:
1 × 142,857 = 142,857
2 × 142,857 = 285,7
14
3 × 142,857 = 428,57
1
4 × 142,857 = 571,428
5 × 142,857 = 7
14,285
6 × 142,857 = 857,
142
7 × 142,857 = 999,999 = closest to The Infinite 
 
Multiplying 142,857 by 2 one gets 285,714, which is the same digits, rotated 4 positions, by 3 one gets 428,571 (shifted 5 places), 142,857 times 7 is 999,999, the closest number to The Infinite. There is a lot more number-plays with 142,857 involved, e.g.
1 / 7 = 0 . 142857 142857 142857 14 ...
2 / 7 = 0 . 285714 2857
14 285714 28 ...
3 / 7 = 0 . 42857
1 428571 428571 42 ...
4 / 7 = 0 . 57
1428 571428 571428 57 ...
5 / 7 = 0 . 7
14285 714285 714285 71 ...
6 / 7 = 0 . 857
142 857142 857142 85 ...
7 / 7 = 0 . 999999 999999 999999 99 ...
8 / 7 = 1 .
142857 142857 142857 14 ...
9 / 7 = 1 . 2857
14 285714 285714 28 ...
See also HERE

Saturday, July 29, 2017

SPX vs True Lunar Node Speed │ August 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days: Aug 04 (Fri), Aug 12 (Sat), Aug 16 (Wed), Aug 19 (Sat), Aug 28 (Mon), Sep 02 (Sat).

Lunar Eclipses (e.g. Aug 07, 2017) occur at Full Moon and Solar Eclipses (e.g. Aug 21, 2017) at New Moon only when their alignments occur in three dimensions. Relative to Earth's orbit, the plane of lunar orbit is inclined. Mean Inclination of Lunar Orbit equals 5.1454 degrees. Eclipses only occur near the Nodes of Lunar Orbit intersection with the Solar Orbital Plane. Earth's Mean Orbital Plane is termed the Ecliptic (synonymous with eclipse). There are two nodal crossings of the ecliptic per nodal period, the ascending node and the descending node. Half the nodal period is the shortest possible interval between two eclipses. Solar and Lunar Eclipses are very distinct: The Moon's shadow during a total Solar Eclipse is only a narrow band on the earth. The Earth's conic shadow at the Moon's mean distance is over 9,000 km wide, nearly three lunar diameters. Only a small percentage of people experience each Solar Eclipse while half the world can view each Lunar Eclipse.
 

Before and after Lunar and Solar Eclipses the True Lunar Node starts wobbling (e.g. on Jul 30, 2017), quickly moving back and forth, retrograde, stationary, direct. Financial markets correlate with this 4 to 14 Day Cycle of the Retrograde-Stationary-Direct motion of the Lunar True Node. About every 86.655 days a so called Moon Wobble (lunar libration) occurs when the Sun is conjunct (e.g. on Aug 16, 2017), opposite and square (0°, 90°, 180°, 270°) the Lunar Node (4 * 86.655 days = 1 Nodical Year or Eclipse Year = 346.62 days). The Node starts wobbling about two weeks before the exact event and remains unstable until about one week after. If coupled with Solar and Lunar Eclipses, the wobble-effect can be extended. And as the Sun approaches conjunction and opposition towards the Lunar Node, it's motion is almost blocked (speed at or near zero). Notably these periods go along with exuberant mood and frenzy, most of the times correlating with rallies or crashes in financial markets. More charts on the correlation of the markets with the Rhythm of the Node HERE + HERE