Any decline should be lasting 6-8 weeks.
Showing posts with label Elliott Wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliott Wave. Show all posts
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Bitcoin weekly high probable by next week | Robert Miner
Labels:
Bitcoin,
Elliott Wave,
Robert Miner
Sunday, January 7, 2024
S&P 500 Weekly Reversal │ Robert Miner
December 29, 2023 = weekly high.
After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.
January 05, 2024:
Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.
After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.
January 05, 2024:
Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.
Labels:
Cycles,
Elliott Wave,
Fibonacci Price Ratios,
Fibonacci Time Ratios,
Momentum,
Robert Miner,
S&P 500 Index,
US-Stocks
Thursday, September 14, 2023
Crude Oil Near Weekly Reversal
After 3 weeks of rise out of the Aug 24 (Thu) low, Crude Oil is nearing a weekly high.
This week may complete another full 3 x ATR advance out of the Sep 08 (Fri) low to 91.68 by Sep 15 (Fri).
Then the minimum retracement target should be 50% down to around 84.75. Pump and Dump.
Labels:
3 Week Cycle,
ATR,
Cameron Benson,
Crude Oil,
Elliott Wave,
Robert Miner,
Short-Term Trading,
Swing Trading
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Value Line Geometric Composite Index | Breaking Above 1998 High
While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon, some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss. Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE) |
No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.
Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017 Source: macrotrends |
US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average Source: PCA |
Labels:
CNN Fear & Greed Index,
DJIA,
DJIA to Gold Price Ratio,
Elliott Wave,
Equity Market P/E Ratio,
Martin A. Armstrong,
NDX,
SPX,
US-Stocks,
Value Line Geometric Composite Index,
VLIC
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
The Skyscraper Indicator 1790 - 2015 │ Elliott Wave International
This
market sentiment indicator has a reliable history that goes back nearly 200
years!
It's sending a signal today that's as clear as it's ever been. Source: Elliott Wave International (Feb 27, 2017) |
Cycles analyst Edward Dewey (1895-1978) was the chief economics analyst for the US Department of Commerce when he developed the "Skyscraper Indicator" in the 1940s: It correlates human optimism to the number of high-rise buildings under construction. When people are very optimistic, they tend to express their feelings in massive construction projects, especially very tall buildings, because they have a need to build toward the sky! Since this extreme optimism is reached at major market peaks, in the economy, severe economic downturns usually follow; not just declines in real estate prices. The world’s current tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai (828 m), nicely illustrates this process: It was built as a monument to the Gulf emirate’s boom in the middle years of last decade and opened in late 2009, just as the emirate plunged into financial crisis.
Experts note the 18-year financial cycle was disrupted by the First and Second World War, but returned to its former state in 2006 (HERE) |
It doesn't need a prophet to tell where the next bubbles are about to pop: Of all of the world's skyscrapers under construction, China is home to 53% of them and since 2016 China's highest buildings exceed the 'One World Trade Center' (417 m) in New York by 200 meters. The boom is on though in mid 2013 the construction of the planned 838 meter Sky City in south-central China was halted by the authorities for not having a building permission. A similar craze for high rise has gripped South Korea and India. India just finished building two skyscrapers and has 14 skyscrapers currently under construction. However, having survived the Arab Spring miraculously, it is this decrepit royal kleptocracy in Saudi Arabia that is now decorating Jeddah with a 1,007 meter high 'Kingdom Tower'. Let's have a look at what happened during recent high times in different places: The construction of the Taipei 101 (508 m) began in 1999 and was completed in 2004. The duration coincided without the recession in the early 2000s and the tech bubble while in 2010 the completion of the Burj Khalifa coincided with the current global financial crisis. The Asian economic crisis, currency devaluation and speculation in stock and property coincided in 1997-1998 with the completion of the Petronas Towers (452 m), the tallest buildings in the world at the time. Now the 18-Year Real Estate Cycle will again be due to peak and pop around 2016 (+/-). See also HERE
Source: The Visual Capitalist (Feb 11, 2016) |
Labels:
18 Year Real Estate Cycle,
China,
Edward R. Dewey,
Elliott Wave,
Elliott Wave International,
Robert R. Prechter,
Saudi Arabia,
Skyscraper Indicator,
Socionomics,
US-Stocks
Saturday, October 1, 2016
Dubai Financial Market Index: 70% Decline Expected | Cyclic Vibrations
Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 01, 2016) - As visible the immediate projection for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) is a similar catastrophe as 2008! This would mean that the money to be spent on the new projects and on the infrastructure for the Expo 2020 is certainly not enough to keep the economy going. Our conservative projection is a 70% decline from current levels despite all the money being spent. The world expo in Dubai will occur at a time when the global economy will be at distress and hence revenues will likely not make up for the costs of hosting the event and will most likely lead to another Dubai debt crisis.
In April 2006 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the above close-up of two "Skyscraper" tip-offs [Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Taiwan's Taipei 101] and wrote: "Everything points to a similar fate in Dubai", and that Burj Dubai would "open its doors in the aftermath of the bull market that gave rise to its creation".
Labels:
18 Year Cycle,
54 Year Cycle,
Ahmed Farghaly,
Commodities,
Cyclic Vibrations,
DFMGI,
Dubai,
Elliott Wave,
Elliott Wave International,
Kondratieff Cycle,
Neural Network,
Spectrum Analysis,
Timing Solution
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro
A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.
When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart.
Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade." |
The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.
With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.
Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.
How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.
See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE |
Labels:
34 Year Commodity Cycle,
Commodities,
Commodity Cycles,
Crude Oil,
Elliott Wave,
Kondratieff Cycle,
Paweł Wiśniewski,
Tony Caldaro
Friday, August 19, 2016
DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations
Enlarge |
I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.
The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.
The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.
Enlarge |
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.
Labels:
18 Month Cycle,
9 Year Cycle,
Ahmed Farghaly,
Cyclic Vibrations,
DAX,
DJIA,
Elliott Wave,
Neural Network,
Spectrum Analysis,
Timing Solution,
US-Stocks
Monday, May 23, 2016
The 162 Year Cycle | Stocks and Commodities since 1555
Stock Prices 1509 to date | Video | Enlarge Chart |
The Elliott Wave structure is certainly interesting as well, what jumps out of the chart is the fact that we had a fifth wave extension in terms of the entire advance since 1784. What is even more interesting is the fact that the move from 1932 also sported a fifth wave extension. There is a very strong guideline in the wave principle that states that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. If one wants to search for examples commodities are a great place to start. The reason why commodities have dramatic crashes is because they follow a fifth wave extension. The guideline suggests that we can expect the decline to make it to the wave two of the fifth wave extension which would be below 1,000 on the DJIA. The fact that the 324 year cycle correction is due at this current point in time certainly supports this conclusion. Here is an example of a crash following a fifth wave extension [...]" More HERE + HERE
Labels:
162 Year Cycle,
18 Year Cycle,
324 Year Cycle,
54 Year Cycle,
9 Year Cycle,
972 Year Cycle,
Ahmed Farghaly,
Commodities,
Cyclic Vibrations,
Elliott Wave,
Kondratieff Cycle,
Stock Market
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
SPX - Heading to the 4th wave of lesser degree
Monday, January 25th could well be the low of the year. If that date fails, mid and late February and mid March would be the next likely dates for major lows. See also HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE Tom DeMark said January 20th was an interim low that would be followed by a 5-8% rebound (HERE). |
Labels:
AstroFin,
Delta,
Elliott Wave,
Financial Astrology,
SPX,
Tom DeMark,
US-Stocks
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Glenn Neely’s "5th Extension Terminal Impulse"
Just picked that up somewhere - good ol' Neely - always good toremember everything is possible under NEo-Wave Rules :-) |
Credits: Doug Short |
Insiders are still buying this market. Credits: Barron's |
Labels:
Barron's,
DAX,
Doug Short,
Elliott Wave,
Glenn Neely,
NeoWave,
SPX,
US-Stocks
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
EUR/USD Long-Term Low
Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 18, 2015) - EUR COT Analysis: Historically highest net long positions of commercial traders at the Euro low in March 2015 suggest that a Major Bottom in the Euro is in, and a 7.6 Year Rise of the Euro is about to start (chart HERE). |
HERE |
Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 19, 2015) - 15.23 Year Cycle in EUR/USD |
Labels:
15.23 Year Cycle,
Ahmed Farghaly,
COT,
Cyclic Vibrations,
Elliott Wave,
EUR/USD,
Timing Solution
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