2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.

 

 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 

Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.

 

 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).

 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 

(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

James Kim @ X (Jan 2, 2024) - 2024 Economic Forecast.

Avoiding Default By Destroying Others | The War-And-Pillage Business Model

The US started talking again about a possible default. However, while a default is technically possible, it is unlikely for now. A default would have immediate severe consequences for the US themselves. Their entire war economy would collapse. And why default now? So far continued destruction of other countries has proved to be a lucrative alternative, attracted investors and directed gigantic capital flows to the US.

 

 Wonders of a War-And-Pillage Economy.

Since 2008 full spectrum assault missions on European Union countries turned out to be nothing short of a success story for the US. In dollar terms the EU economy is now down to 65% of the United States economy. That’s down from 91% in 2013. American GDP per capita is now more than twice that of the EU, and the gap continues to widen. However, now one dollar is worth 50 cents in 2020 dollars. And why exactly is 2013, the year before the US Maidan coup in Ukraine, important? Because in 2013 the US systematically began to use sanctions mechanisms to deprive the European Union countries of cheap Russian energy and to force them to break off beneficial trade and projects with Russia and China. Capital fleeing from the EU to the US was triggered and has been increasing ever since. The US is perfectly content with the now rapidly de-industrializing, US energy-dependent, asset-stripped and broke European Union and will abuse it as long as it lasts. 

RAND Corporation (Jan 25, 2022) - Crush Europe and Strengthen the US.

 

So this time around, which are the remaining wealthy, long-term strategically expendable, docile and suicidal vassal states expected to finance the US for just a little bit longer: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE? Taiwan, South Korea, Japan? In reality the recently near global US dollar hegemony shrunk by half a planet since February 2022. Destroying and plundering Russia, China and Iran remains the US' only goal and hope. Whatever it takes. For the universal triumph, to the full satisfaction and for the eternal glory of their chosen masters. Or, under certain circumstances, God willing, war and regime change in the US will soon mess up those ambitions, as L. David Linsky suggests.

 

April 27, 2023 – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking plainly about sensitive issues, sanctions against Russia, 

shrunken labor force, high inflation, minuscule growth, ample support to Ukraine, his interest rates-scheming for 2023, etc.

in a real Russian television interview with pranksters Vovan and Lexus, who posed as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

» O my people, your guides mislead you and they have swallowed up the course of your paths. «
Prophet Isaiah, Holy Bible.

 

 » Know your enemy. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

When Not To Put Money In The Bank - Negative Interest Rates in Europe

econfix (Jan 4, 2016) - It seems that in Europe negative interest rates are common place. Below are the current rates of some central banks:
 

European Central Bank -0.3%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%

Why are they in negative territory? For all these countries it is the exchange rate against the Euro that is important. Negative interest rates weaken a country’s currency and make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Furthermore central banks could be trying to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of falling prices that could derail the recovery.

In theory, interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice, there’s a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. If banks make more customers pay to hold their money, cash may go under the mattress instead. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said at her confirmation hearing in November 2013 that even a deposit rate that’s positive but close to zero could disrupt the money markets that help fund financial institutions. Two years later, she said that a change in economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the U.S., and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he could now cut the benchmark rate below the current 0.5 percent if necessary. Deutsche Bank economists note that negative rates haven’t sparked the bank runs or cash hoarding some had feared, in part because banks haven’t passed them on to their customers. But there’s still a worry that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to lend. Ever-lower rates also fuel concern that countries are engaged in a currency war of competitive devaluations. Source: Bloomberg

Web Bot: Massive Crackdown in China - $64B Underground Bank Busted - Emergency FED Meeting Monday (Nov 23): Rate Hike?

HERE

The Lowest Interest Rates in 5,000 Years

Sources: Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates".