S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.

This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 24, 2024) @ Twitter/X 

 

 

Reference:

 ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

 

THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 

 

This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  

 

Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 

 

The outlook for April is much brighter. 

 

  

Reference: 

 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

[ oftentimes true: ]

 

In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

 

The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin April 2024 Halving - Target 150K+ by October 2025 | Peter L. Brandt

Bitcoin halvings are strongly associated with past bull market trends in Bitcoin. Also, a strong correlation exists between the halvings and the timing of the associated bull trends. More precisely, in the past the halvings have been right at the half-way point of major bull cycles. In other words, the lengths of bull trends following the halving dates have been about equal to the length of the bull trends prior to the halving dates [...]

 

The 2022 to 2025 Bull Cycle

We know what HAS BEEN in previous bull cycles. We have confidence in what we already know. But projecting past price behavior into the future is highly speculative. The next halving is April 22, 2024. Assuming that the low of the current bull cycle was in late November 2022. That low was 75 weekly bars before the April 2024 halving.
 

If the bull trend extends 75 weekly bars beyond the next halving, a price high would occur in early October 2025. If the pace of the bull trend after April 2024 is at similar pace to the bull trend since the November 2022 low, then the high in October 2025 could be around $150,000. 

 

However, the post-halving advances during previous bull cycles have been much steeper than the pre-halving advances.

 

 

 

Quoted from:
Peter L. Brandt (Feb 14, 2024) - The precocity of bull markets in Bitcoin as associated with halvings.

 

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 28, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

 Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index (Mar 10, 2024)

S&P 500 March 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch

Over the recent 21 years March has been a decent performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 0.78% by DJIA to a respectable 1.40% by NASDAQ. 

 

March typically opens positively but selling pressure and weakness tend to follow quickly thereafter with choppy trading until around mid-month. From here on the market generally rallied to finish out the month. End-of-Q1 portfolio adjustments have contributed to additional choppy trading during the last three or four trading days of March. Election year average performance is influenced by across-the-board double-digit losses in 2020, but March’s pattern is similar with weakness in the first half and modestly improved trading in the second half.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 5, 2024) @ Twitter/X

S&P 500 vs VIX and Seasonal Patterns

Corrections and short-term market peaks often coincide with exceptionally low levels of market volatility.

Reference: ISABELNET - Feb 28, 2024.

 

Beware of the Ides of March: This year also coincides with the seasonal decline during presidential election years where the sitting president is running. Support levels to watch in the S&P 500: 4800 old ATH and 4600 near summer 2023 highs.

 

 Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

February’s last trading day historically bearish. DJIA and S&P 500 have been down 9 straight and 11 of the last 12. NASDAQ has tried to buck the trend, up 3 of last 4 years. Potential setup for historically bullish first trading day of March.

Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

 

 Reference: Wayne Whaley @ Twitter/X - Feb 29, 2024

 

Reference: Larry Williams' 2024 US Stock Market Outlook.

S&P 500 vs NAAIM Exposure Index │ ISABELNET

The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.

 The NAAIM Exposure Index, with a reading of 95.58, indicates a strong bullish sentiment among active investment managers, reflecting their high confidence in the future trajectory of the stock market (published Feb 16, 2024).

 

 S&P 500 and NAAIM Index above 97 (published Feb 15, 2024)

Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities at tops and selling them at bottoms, highlighting the difficulties they encounter in accurately timing the market and making lucrative investment choices.

Reference:
ISABELNET (Feb 15+16, 2024) - S&P 500 and NAAIM Exposure Index above 97.

 

Still up: The 3 Day, the 9 Day and the 18 Day cycles vs the S&P 500 Index.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 16, 2024) - DJIA S&P 500 & NASDAQ are all up 7 of last 12 days after the Presidents’ Day, but long-term record remains weak. Since 1990, average performance ranges from –0.56% for NASDAQ to –0.28% for DJIA. 

Sizable declines in the last 2 years have worsened the record.

S&P 500 Seasonality Weak from Mid-February to Mid-March │ Jeff Hirsch

The big round number 5,000 is proving to be resistant. It will likely take a few attempts to break through. February’s notorious seasonal weakness is bound to relieve the market’s obviously overbought condition. This is not out of the ordinary for February even into March.

 

This usually mild retreat (around 4% on average) from mid-February to mid-March in election years with a sitting president running for reelection could be a good opportunity to establish new or add to existing positions. Election year seasonal patterns suggest respectable full-year gains. 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 13, 2024) @ Twitter/X 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Jan 24, 2024) @ Twitter/X

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for February 2024 | Jeff Hirsch

Typical February Performance: Weakness After Mid-Month Peak - After a strong opening day, strength has tended to fade until around the seventh trading day. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held until the end of February with a peak occurring around mid-month. By the end of February, only NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have remained slightly positive while DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 turn negative.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Jan 24, 2024) @ X

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch  (Dec 26, 2023) - 2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern.

Larry Williams (Dec 18, 2023) - 2024 US Stock Market Outlook. 

 

2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch

 2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again. 

In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;  

(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.

Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.

 

The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years, January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

 

In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance. The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle, the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and  the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.

 

The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.

 

 

The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:

Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high

The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):

Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High

The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024: 

 

Additional References:
Seth Golden (Dec 26, 2023) @ X

Dimensional (2023) - Market Returns During Election Years.

IsabelNet (Dec 12, 2023) - S&P 500 Day of Month Seasonality Returns 1928 to present.

 

 Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,

before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%

2005 = 3%

 

 

S&P 500 │ 2023 Still An Inside Year

 S&P500 (weekly candles)

The 2023 yearly target remains above the January 2022 high at 4,817. Price currently above Level 2 and above the July 2023 third quarter's high. 2023 is still an Inside Year, inside of the 2022 price range. The 2023 fourth quarter is an Outside Quarter. Eight trading days left before the year closes for another 120 to 140 points up into the Level 3 price target at 4,857 or even 5,000. From there a retracement down to around 4,587 - 4,440. The seasonal chart points to the 2023 high around Dec 26 (Tue). See also: The Yearly Market Maker Breakout Template.

 

S&P500 (4 hour bars)

Week Dec 18-25 sideways-to-up; Year-End-Rally;  early January 2024 high around 5,050. 

 

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For December 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

First half of December weak ahead of mid-month pop.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Nov 29, 2023) @ X

 

 primetimes2.com - Cycle of Solunar Forces in December, 2023.

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For November 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

Being a bullish month, November has seven bullish days based upon S&P 500, with four occurring in the first five trading days of the month. This bullish stretch is visible in November’s seasonal chart with solid gains spanning the first six trading days. Following a strong open, the market has tended to drift sideways with some chop through mid-month and into the Thanksgiving holiday before rallying strongly to finish the month. Although historically a bullish month, November does have weak points. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. In pre-election years, performance in November has been softer, but full-month performance remains positive on average.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 30, 2023) @ X

See also:

TPR (2023) - Chinese 24 Solar Terms & Lunar Cycles in 2023.