Showing posts with label Sovereign Debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sovereign Debt. Show all posts

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Creditors And Debtors In The Real Sector Of The World


An interesting picture is emerging: China is a creditor to other countries in the world to the tune of more than 1,300 billion dollars. This is according to a report published by AidData: "With new data from more than 700 state-owned lenders and donors in China, we show that Beijing remains the largest source of international development finance in the world. It continues to surpass all other bilateral and multilateral sources of aid and credit to the developing world, including the US and the World Bank." Note that China, together with Hong Kong, is by a wide margin the world's largest lender. The top 8 largest debtor countries have not changed for many years (Ireland is to be overtaken by Italy early next year), but the amount of debt is growing: 1. US, 2. UK, 3. Japan, 4. Netherlands, 5. France, 6. Ireland, 7. Italy, 8. Germany. G8 total external debt ~ over $63 trillion. 

Monday, February 6, 2017

Government Debt per Capita | The Global Picture

HowMuch.net (23 November 2016) - National debt is one of the most debated issues in politics. After the global recession, people began questioning debt and the implications of too much debt. While some country’s have high debt and some have low, a better measure is the amount of debt dividend by population. Take a look at the map below to see how much people in each country owe towards their country’s debt.


In the map above, you can see each country with a number representing the amount of money each person owes towards the country’s debt. In the legend, countries are designated a color based on public debt as a percentage of GDP. The more each citizen of a country owes, the closer to the center of the map the country is. All figures are in US dollars.

Countries where people owe the most:
    Japan: $85,694.87 per person
    Ireland: $67,147.59 per person
    Singapore: $56,112.75 per person
    Belgium: $44,202.75 per person
    United States: $42,503.98 per person
    Canada: $42,142.61 per person
    Italy: $40,461.11 per person
    Iceland: $39,731.65 per person
    Austria:  $38,769.98 per person
    United Kingdom: $36,206.11 per person

Countries where people owe the least:
    Liberia: $27.44 per person
    Tajikistan: $50.67 per person
    Democratic Republic of Congo: $90.70 per person
    Burundi: $97.62 per person
    Kiribati: $126.98 per person
    Malawi: $172.34 per person
    Uzbekistan: $177.13 per person
    Uganda: $194.23 per person
    Haiti: $204.33 per person
    Mali: $207.54 per person

Right in the center of the map lies Japan, the country with the highest amount of debt owed by each person. Japan has been piling up debt since its “economic miracle” wore off in the 1990s. Each Japanese person owes $85,694.87 towards Japan’s national debt, far more than any other country. Ireland also stands out from the crowd, with each Irish person owing $67,147.59 towards Ireland’s national debt. All of the other countries with a high amount of debt owed per person are developed nations like the United States, Belgium, Austria, United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and others. Developed nations are able to borrow more money because investors generally trust wealthier nations will pay back debt in full. Still, many wealth nations have a staggering amount of debt owed.

The countries with the lowest amount of debt owed per person are relatively poor nations. Liberians owe the least amount of money towards their country’s national debt at $27.44 per person. Other poor nations with low debt include Democratic Republic of Congo, at $90.70 per person, and Haiti, at $204.33 per person. Poor nations usually do not have the opportunity to take on national debt because investors are unwilling to offer loans to these nations. There are a few exceptions to the trend of poorer nations owing the least amount towards debt per person. Taiwan is a relatively wealthy nation with a large economy compared to the size of its population, but each Taiwanese citizen only owes $7,223.90 towards Taiwan’s national debt.

The trend in the chart is pretty clear: wealthier nations have more debt. Japan, Ireland and Singapore are above the trend, with Japanese people in particular owing a lot towards their country’s debt. People living in developed countries owe quite a bit towards their country’s national debt, while people living in undeveloped nations owe very little.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

The Pattern of US Bankruptcies | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 22, 2016) - I found an interesting pattern in the Gold Miner's index. I realized that at the beginning of the previous two Kondratieff waves the US had defaulted on their obligations. This is the reason why a human brain is superior to spectral analysis, we tend to spot patterns earlier. In 1933 the US Treasury was official declared bankrupt after the emergency banking act was voted into law by congress. "The Emergency Banking Act succeeded in abrogating America’s gold standard and hypothecated all property found within the United States to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank." This bankruptcy occurred after world war one as visible on the picture above. The Vietnam war was the culprit of the second American bankruptcy with the closing of the Gold window in 1971 by president Nixon. So much money was printed to fund the war that there was no way the US could redeem holders of US dollar with Gold at the pegged rate of $35 an ounce. We once again have the same pattern recurring at the time of writing. We had the Iraq/Afghanistan war the debt of which has become to big of a burden to service and history will once again repeat with yet another bankruptcy in a few short years. This will obviously have a devastating impact on the entire world since US Treasuries are the largest single asset that people own world wide. I wonder how China will react to such a bankruptcy but I guess only time will tell. I am so certain that this is going to occur not only because of the pattern that we see on the Gold Miner's index but that of Donald Trump's upcoming presidency. 


I analyzed all the similar cyclical circumstances and under all of them the president of the United States was a republican. Those cyclical circumstances include 1861, 1881, 1971 and 2001. This gives us reason to believe that without question the next president of the United States will be Donald J. Trump. We can also look at Hillary Clinton's history to discern if she is likely to make it to the White House. First, We know that the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 54 month wave saw Hillary Clinton lose in the primaries against Obama. We also know that she lost against Obama once again in the similar cyclical position in terms of the 9 year cycle. We also know that she left the White House in the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 18 year cycle. Now that we are certain that Donald J Trump will win the election we can combine that with what we have discerned from the Gold Miner's index with his history of Bankruptcies. Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy a total of 6 times the last of which was in 2009. W.D. Gann said that the highest correlations occur with the most recent similar cyclical circumstance. The 2009 low is expected to reoccur in 2017 and hence we can expect a bankrupt United States government before the end of next year or the year after at the latest.

Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office (HERE)

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Breakeaven Oil Price - Towards The Collapse Of Saudi Arabia

Thierry Meyssan (Jan 11, 2016) - [...] The fall of the House of Saud may be provoked by a reduction in the price of oil. Incapable of reforming its life-style, the kingdom is borrowing hand over fist, to the point that according to financial analysts, it will probably collapse within two years. The partial sale of Aramco may temporarily postpone its demise, but this will only be possible at the cost of a loss of autonomy. The decapitation of Sheikh al-Nimr will have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. The fall of Saudi Arabia is now inevitable because there is no hope left for the people who live there. The country will be plunged into a mixture of tribal revolts and social revolutions which will be far more murderous than the previous Middle-Eastern conflicts.

Costs of Oil Production 2015 - Enlarge (Credits: Aargam)
Far from acting to prevent this tragic end, the US protectors of the kingdom are awaiting it with impatience. They continually praise Prince Mohammed’s «wisdom», as if encouraging him to make even more mistakes. Already in September 2001, the US Committee of the Chiefs of Staff were working on a map for the re-modelling of the «wider Middle East », which planned for the separation of the country into five states. In July 2002, Washington was considering ways of getting rid of the Saud family, during a famous session of the Defense Policy Board. From now on, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind: The United States have managed to solve the question of the succession of King Abdallah, but today, they are attempting to lead Saudi Arabia into error. Their objective is now to divide the countrry into five states. Wahhabism is the state religion, but the power of the Saud family, both interior and exterior, depends exclusively on Sunni tribes, while it subjects all other populations to apartheid. King Salman (80 years old) leaves the exercise of power to one of his children, Prince Mohammed (30 years old). The Prince has seized control of his country’s major companies, has declared war on Yemen, and has just executed the leader of the opposition, Sheikh al-Nimr." 



HERE
 According to the 2015 budget that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud unveiled on December 28, the Gulf state that is the symbol of oil producing and exporting countries will face a 367-billion-riyal deficit this year, which is about USD 87.0 billion. Saudi Arabia has never seen a budget deficit of such proportion; it is a historical record and equivalent to 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Saudi Arabia is directly and indirectly involved in four wars (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Libya) and is trying to make sure that the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt does not implode. In Syria, the Saudis are trying to overthrow President Assad and the costs have increased dramatically. On Saturday, January 16th the Saudi Arabia Tadawful stock index slumped 7% to its lowest level in five years after Brent oil fell below USD 29 a barrel. While all stock markets on the Arabian peninsula tumbled, the Iranian stock index gained one percent, making it one of the best performing markets in the world with gains of six percent since the start of the year (HERE).